Inside the Numbers: NBA Central Division

By: Kevin LaFrancis

In a word, the Central Division is “growing”. The division is laden with teams that are continuing to get better and preparing to compete for the title in years to come. Unfortunately, growing comes with growing pains. Each of these teams has a clear identity, but each of them also needs time to build camaraderie and trust. Here’s my take on the teams in the Central Division.

Chicago Bulls (Record: 5-6)

The Bulls have struggled this season with the  sustained injury to star point guard Derrick Rose (no initial date has been set for his return to the lineup). In Rose’s absence, Luol Deng has become the first option for this squad, and he is averaging over 18 points per game. Although I love most of his game, Deng is launching too many three-point shots right now. He’s shooting just 24% from behind the line and is jacking up over three attempts per game. Inside, big man Joakim Noah has been another important option for the Bulls, averaging a double-double (14.8 ppg, 10.0 rpg). His post moves look more refined and fluid every year. Carlos Boozer adds yet another complex dimension to the team’s offense. He can score in a variety of ways. Although he may not be worth $15 million a year, Boozer certainly helps the team win games.

Overall, this offense has settled for too many jumpers. Kirk Hinrich has taken more ill-advised shots than a partying college freshman and has had similar negative results. Because he keeps shooting, veteran guards Nate Robinson and Richard Hamilton have felt inclined to “keep up”. Hinrich is shooting just over 30% while Robinson and Hamilton are connecting on a shade below 47%. Other teams are getting higher-percentage shots closer to the basket, and that has resulted in most of the Bulls’ losses in late game situations. On the other side of the ball, the Bulls rank ninth in the league in team defense and fourth in steals. Head coach Tom Thibodeau is renowned for his defensive coaching abilities, and the team has already demonstrated plenty of strength on defense this season. Despite the Bulls’ successful half court pressure, their transition defense has been an issue. Teams are getting too many easy layups as a result of Noah trying to steal outlet passes on the other end of the floor. As much as I like him, I think he needs to sprint back to the paint quicker. Once this team seals off fast break opportunities defensively and looks inside more often offensively, they will be a tough out come playoff time.
*Before Season Grade: B
*Current Grade: B-
Early End of Regular Season Projection: 1^st in Division, 4^th in Conference

Cleveland Cavaliers (Record: 3-8)

In just his second season with the Cavs, 2011 No.1 pick Kyrie Irving has already started living up to expectations. Irving ranks sixth in the NBA in scoring (22.9 ppg) while taking less than 18 shots per game. Cleveland will sorely miss his presence for the next month. Guard Dion Waiters has also played well in his rookie year. The 20-year old Syracuse alum has put up just under 14 points per game thus far. Some believe that he takes too many shots outside the flow of the offense, but as he continues to adjust to the league, I think he will become increasingly more effective. Big man Anderson Varejao is essential to this team. Only Zach Randolph of the Grizzlies has averaged more rebounds than Varejao this season. He also contributes heavily to Cleveland’s scoring load (13.9 ppg).

The offense is still below average…Cleveland ranks 20^th in the league in scoring, putting up just 95.4 points per game. The bench isn’t offering much help, either, ranking 27th in the league in scoring and rebounding. Too often, in transition and in the half court, the team looks like it is not playing together. This carries over to defense. Cleveland’s defense has more holes than a golf course. Their help side rotates less than a flat tire. The Cavs own the third worst scoring-average defense in the NBA, and teams have been exposing the Cavs’ terrible rotations by throwing skip passes and moving the ball quickly. Looking solely at the statistics, there appears to be little hope for this team. But the Cavs have just two players over 26 years of age on the roster. As this young squad gains experience, it will slowly eliminate their gaping flaws and mature into a contender.
*Before Season Grade: D
*Current Grade: D
Early End of Regular Season Projection: 5^th in Division, 14^th in Conference

Detroit Pistons (Record: 2-10)

Greg Monroe cannot be praised enough. The seven-footer has put up fantastic numbers (17 points and 9.7 rebounds) this year, and is rapidly blossoming into one of the most dominant centers in the game. Detroit should continue to run its offense around him. The Pistons’ offense ranks 25^th in the league in scoring because it has no other options. The Pistons are 19^th in field goal percentage, yet they take the  fourth-fewest number of threes of any team in the league.

Why? Because the Pistons do not have outside shooters. The team’s aim has been to sacrifice three-point attempts and make up for the difference with better quality two-point attempts. Though I agree with this logic, it is not achieving favorable results. There are two main reasons that explain the lack of success. First, they are taking a lot of long two-pointers. Point guards Rodney Stuckey and Brandon Knight shoot below 37% from the field even though they rarely shoot threes because they take over 13 two-point shots per game, most of which are away from the basket. This ruins the point of the system because long two-pointers are still low percentage shots. Second, less outside attempts leads to less offensive rebounds and second chances. Detroit is 2^nd to last in the league in rebounding because opponents consistently hold the Pistons to one opportunity to score per possession.

Defensively, the Pistons are mediocre. Opponents make almost 45% of field goal attempts against Detroit, which ranks 21^st in the NBA. Conversely, the Piston rookies are making a positive impact on both ends. Off the bench, Andre Drummond has looked great in the limited minutes he has received. Also, Kyle Singler has been the Pistons’ best role player. With so much young talent, optimism has begun to fill fans at the Palace of Auburn Hills. Like the American auto industry, the Pistons appear to finally have hope after bottoming out a few years ago.

*Before Season Grade: D+
*Current Grade: C-
Early End of Regular Season Projection: 4^th in Division, 13^th in Conference

 

Indiana Pacers (Record: 6-7)

The Pacers finished third  in the conference last year with an outstanding record of 42-24. The team’s success surprised numerous analysts and coaches. Roy Hibbert stands at the center of that success. Hibbert’s imposing presence is a microcosm of the team’s combination of height, athleticism, and ferocity. Indiana’s defensive philosophy has spilled over into this season. The defense has allowed the second-fewest points per game in the NBA (91.5). Teams have trouble attacking the basket against Indiana because of the guards’ physicality and the forwards’ blocking ability. Paul George and George Hill have done a tremendous job against opposing frontcourts. The team holds opponents to a league low 40% shooting from the field.

However, the Pacers allow the fouth-most field goals per game. Just like New York, Indiana needs to focus on finishing possessions. I place the fault on the guards, because Indiana holds teams to outside shots, which lead to long rebound opportunities. Despite allowing a substantial amount of offensive rebounds, the team makes up for it on the other end. They pull down countless offensive rebounds of their own, leading to the 2^nd best rebounding rate in the league. These second chances help, but do not compensate for the poor execution in the half court offense. Indiana cuts less than broken scissors and does a terrible job at passing the basketball. The team scores the 4^th least points on average and the 3^rd least assists on average thus far. As the season progresses, Indiana needs to address these issues in order to replicate its results from last year. The team has too much potential to waste by not putting effort into the fundamentals. Eventually, I believe head coach Frank Vogel will successfully confront these problems and help his team overcome them.

*Before Season Grade: B
*Current Grade: C+
Early End of Regular Season Projection: 2^nd in Division, 6^th in Conference

Milwaukee Bucks (Record: 6-4)

In the biggest trade of the year last season, the Bucks shipped Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson to Golden State for star guard Monta Ellis. The Bucks needed scoring, and the addition of Ellis (20.2 ppg this year) has contributed to a positive change in offensive production. Brandon Jennings, a point guard by nature, has done an exceptional job transitioning to the 2-guard. Not only has he exceeded expectations on the offensive end, but he also has helped the team stop opponents’ transition attacks. Also, he uses his quickness to pressure taller players in the half court and makes it harder for them to get open. Off the bench, Samuel Dalembert and John Henson provide solid inside production and help make Milwaukee the best rebounding bench in the league. Small forward Tobias Harris gives the Bucks a versatile forward.

This team truly embodies unselfishness, leading the NBA in assists. They are excellent at the pick and roll. Most importantly, Jennings does an exceptional job of beating his man and engaging the help defender. When the help defender commits to Jennings, he always finds an open teammate for a dunk or an easy shot.  Unlike most young teams, the Bucks seem to have chemistry and mesh offensively. Everything they do has a purpose. Nevertheless, they still struggle to win games because their defense has too many issues. Often appearing sluggish, Larry Sanders, Dalembert and Henson are rarely in the correct spots defensively. As big men, one of their roles is to seal off penetration into the paint. However, they are often late to help and commit unnecessary fouls that give opponents easy points. Sanders hacks more than an immoral computer geek and is often on the bench in foul trouble. Does this team have potential? Of course. But so does every other team in this league. The Bucks’ future depends on its level of devotion to improving.

*Before Season Grade: C+
*Current Grade: B-
Early End of Regular Season Projection: 3^rd in Division, 10^th in Conference

 
 

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