Is Illinois an NCAA Tournament team?

By: Kels Dayton

Brandon Paul and the Illini picked up a huge win against No. 1 Indiana on Thursday. (Getty Images)

How do you figure out Illinois?

At 16-8, 3-7 in the Big Ten, the Illini own one of the strangest resumes of any bubble team in NCAA history.

They’ve got wins over No. 14 Butler, No. 6 Gonzaga, No. 10 Ohio State, and after Tyler Griffey got lost on the last play of the game on Thursday night, they’ve now beaten No. 1 Indiana.

They’ve got a future NBA player in guard Brandon Paul (17.4 ppg) and a coach who led Ohio University to the Sweet 16 last season. They came out of nowhere at the beginning of the year, winning their first 12 games and streaking to a No. 10 ranking.

But somewhere in the murderer’s row of the Big Ten, Illinois lost its way. They were upset at Purdue, then drilled by a red-hot Minnesota team at home. They were blown out by Wisconsin and then most offensively, Northwestern, before losses to Michigan State, Michigan, and Wisconsin again left them at 2-7 in the Big Ten and put their NCAA Tournament hopes on life support.

That is, until Thursday night.

The Illini stormed back from a 41-29 halftime defecit to topple top-ranked Indiana, 74-72. In a season full of court-storming craziness, this upset was particularly meaningful.

That’s because with a 46 RPI (very good) and the 9th-toughest schedule in the country, Illinois still has a great shot at crashing the Big Dance.

Former Deadspin founder and Illinois fan Will Leitch said on Twitter that the win over Indiana may be the program’s biggest since it hammered Chris Paul and Wake Forest in 2005. He’s probably right.

Then again, Illinois is 3-7 in the Big Ten. Not many teams (if any) have reached the NCAAs after starting off so badly in conference. So, they’ve got to keep winning. And after a murderous stretch that would have left the Chicago Bulls reeling, Illinois’ schedule finally offers a brief respite.

Check out the next four games: @Minnesota, vs. Purdue, @Northwestern, vs. Penn State.

Those are all winnable, and if Illinois finds a way to win them all, they’ll once again be .500 in the Big Ten. From there, Illinois plays at Michigan, vs. Nebraska, at Iowa, and at Ohio State. That’s a rough stretch, but even if Illinois doesn’t beat another ranked team the rest of the way, the Illini would finish 8-10 in conference. That might be enough to punch their ticket to the Tourney.

Who knows how Illinois will finish. Conventional wisdom says that the Illini would probably have to win at least 8 conference games to get in. But with the number of quality wins they have, it’s possible that 7-11 could get it done.

Either way, it’s become clear that the Fighting Illini are the strangest team in this strange season.